Source: Kyle Bonn
Riding high off their new lead in the Premier League title chase, Manchester City look to take the next step towards a second straight European championship as well as they host Real Madrid on Wednesday.
Pep Guardiola engineered a thrilling, back-and-forth 3-3 draw at the Bernabeu in the first leg last week, seeing a pair of leads evaporate but also taking home a manageable scoreline for the all-important second meeting.
As the most successful European club in history, Real Madrid will certainly not go quietly out of the Champions League at the quarterfinal stage, and if the first leg in any indication, the Etihad Stadium is in for another sensational 90 minutes of world-class football.
While Guardiola’s side comes off a weekend of securing a late advantage in the Premier League standings, bringing a fourth straight domestic title into frame, they can also put themselves into the mix for a possible repeat of their European crown, which will allow fans to dream of an unprecedented two-year run of dominance.
Man City vs Real Madrid odds
Despite the level aggregate scoreline, Manchester City are considered heavy favourites to advance through to the semifinals thanks to their good recent form and eye-popping attacking firepower.
Interestingly, while the first leg featured six goals, the total is still somewhat muted compared to some of the other Champions League matches this week, with over 2.5 goals still at -165, which by today’s standards is around average for most games involving these teams in domestic play.
Man City vs Real Madrid prediction
- Moneyline lean: Man City (-150)
- Score prediction: Man City 3-1 Real Madrid
Picking against either of these European giants feels wrong, but after finishing even in a wild game in the first leg, there’s little value on repeating a level scoreline. That was just the second draw between these two clubs since 2016, a stretch of eight games. In that span, the home side won five of the six other results, so sticking with a suddenly revived Manchester City is the way to go.
Pep Guardiola’s side hadn’t played consistently well for months, but kept themselves within striking distance of the Premier League title race, and managed to stay afloat in the Champions League. Then, over the weekend, they pummeled a pesky Luton Town side and found themselves atop the top flight table.
Getting Kyle Walker back to defend Vinicius Jr will be enormous for Man City, and they should see off a thin, flawed Real Madrid side, even as Carlo Ancelotti manages to keep Real Madrid in the game for some time.
Man City vs Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2024
- Kickoff time: 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA), VAR: Massimiliano Irrati (ITA)
- Last meeting: Real Madrid 3-3 Man City (Apr. 9, 2024 | Champions League)
Man City vs Real Madrid key stats
- The first-leg draw between these clubs ended Manchester City’s 10-game Champions League winning streak, which was the second-longest in the history of the competition in its current format. Their incredible 21-game unbeaten streak still remains intact, with their last defeat in UCL play coming against Real Madrid in extra-time of their 2022 semifinal second leg. Man City have not been beaten in 90-minute regulation for 27 straight Champions League games, dating back to a 2-1 defeat to RB Leipzig to end the 2021/22 group stage, an ultimately meaningless game.
- The winner of this quarterfinal matchup is considered most-likely to win the competition, with Man City and Real Madrid given a combined 46.11% chance to win the title by Opta’s predictive models.
- Since the start of the 2021/22 season, Vinicius Jr has tallied more Champions League goal contributions (14 goals, 15 assists) than any other player, adding two assists to that total in the first leg last week.
Man City vs Real Madrid team news
Man City will have Kyle Walker back to full fitness after the England international made the bench against Luton Town on the weekend. Phil Foden, Rodri, and Bernardo Silva were also unused substitutes in the big 5-1 win, as Pep Guardiola managed to take control of the Premier League title race while giving some of his most important players the weekend off. Guardiola has no fitness concerns or suspensions to work around in this second leg, and with yellow card counts wiping after this round, Man City have no players to worry about being at risk of suspension moving forward either.
The biggest issue for Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti to navigate is the yellow card suspension for Aurelien Tchouameni, who will not be available in midfield for this match and will need to be replaced by the ageless Toni Kroos. With Luka Modric playing 86 minutes on the weekend, Kroos was fully rested, and Eduardo Camavinga also saw just 26 minutes of action in a bid to stay fully fit. Eder Militao made his return from an ACL tear late in the win over Mallorca, but will likely need to be brought back to 90-minute fitness slowly. Rodrygo did not see the field on the weekend after picking up a knock in the first leg, but should be available to start.
Man City vs Real Madrid best bet
- Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals
- Odds: -120 (BetMGM)
As we saw in the first leg, these two teams are attack-minded before anything else. While Manchester City used to pride themselves on picking up a clean sheet alongside their overwhelming victories, they now show little desire to keep the other team out as long as they’re well out in front.
Man City have just three clean sheets in 13 Premier League games this season, and have just one clean sheet in nine Champions League games this year, with just the 3-0 home win over Swiss side Young Boys as the lone survivor. Yet across all 22 of those games mentioned, Man City have not lost once — they don’t need to keep a clean sheet to come away with a result.
On the flip side, Real Madrid profile similarly. They have been solid defensively in the league, but have just three Champions League clean sheets, and their lone goose egg on the road at RB Leipzig only came thanks to the goalkeeping heroics of Andriy Lunin as the back line crumbled on numerous occasions. Both sides will be happy to throw numbers forward, as the days of cagey games in massive Champions League tilts are a relic of the past.
Man City vs Real Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Phil Foden to score or assist
- Odds: +100 (FanDuel)
While Erling Haaland slumped up front for Manchester City, Phil Foden picked up the slack. Haaland is starting to find his form, but he still has just one open-play goal in his last six games across all competitions.
City, clearly, can still find goals from other sources — Foden has been rested in full for each of their last two Premier League games, in which they’ve put up nine goals — but the young England star remains their main chance finisher and creator at the moment. After logging a PFA Player of the Year caliber season domestically, Pep Guardiola has clearly seen European action as the priority for Foden through this busy stretch.
Foden has eight goal contributions in seven Champions League matches this year, and he’s picked up nine goals in his last nine Premier League matches before the recent stint of rest. Back him to lead the charge here — his +150 anytime goal scorer odds have value, but tacking on his creative abilities for almost no penalty is the overwhelmingly smart play.
Man City vs Real Madrid card prop
- Pick: Over 5.5 total cards
- Odds: -105 (DraftKings)
- Pick: Red card to be shown in the match — YES
- Odds: +260 (DraftKings)
Italian referee Daniele Orsato is one of the most experienced and decorated referees in Europe, and for good reason. He has been excellent when the lights are brightest.
Orsato has a solid history in this fixture, and it suggests there could be cards flying throughout the 90 minutes. He has officiated two Champions League knockout games between these clubs in the last four years, both coming at the Bernabeu.
He was in charge of the bonkers 3-1 Real Madrid victory in the 2022 semifinals in which seven bookings were issued across 34 total fouls. The Italian also officiated the 2-1 Man City win in the 2020 Round of 16 in which Sergio Ramos was sent off late in the game after the visitors went in front on a Kevin De Bruyne second-half masterclass.
Once one team gets an opening goal, they will look to kill the game off by any means necessary — regardless of whether they’re successful in doing so (history between these clubs says they won’t), it should create some significant needle.
THE AUTHOR: Kyle Bonn
